Pakistani government near collapse?

  The administration of Prime Minister Yousef Gilani is near collapse today after a key parliamentary coalition partner defected to the opposition. The MQM bailed out of the PPP-led majority due to a lack of confidence in the Gilani government’s ability to maintain order in the cities, as well as in protest over price increases for fuel and a skyrocketing inflation rate. Gilani now has to find new partners to fill the void left by Pakistan’s second-largest political party, and that may not be easy — nor will it be good news for the US:

The second-largest party in Pakistan’s ruling coalition quit the government Sunday over fuel price increases and other complaints, leaving the country with a minority government.

Sunday’s announcement by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement that its 25 members would join the opposition comes after several previous threats to quit the government. But Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said the ruling Pakistan People’s Party would be able to function without a majority in the National Assembly, which chooses the prime minister. …

Muhammad Anwar, a senior coordinator for the MQM, told CNN that the last straw for the party were the fuel price increases that took effect Saturday. Pakistan’s government raised gasoline prices by 9.2% and increased kerosene by nearly 6%, blaming higher crude oil costs for the move.

Anwar also said the government had failed to crack down on “rampant” corruption and maintain law and order — particularly in Karachi and the surrounding southern province of Sindh. Businessmen in Karachi “are virtually hostage” to extortion and kidnapping rings, he said.

The crisis may affect the range of options that the US has in pressing Gilani for a more robust effort to clean up the frontier provinces. While law and order is one of the reasons MQM gave for leaving the majority, that was offered in what seems to be a purely domestic context.  The raids and missile attacks across the border by US and NATO forces won’t help with domestic law enforcement; in fact, if it has any effect at all, it probably makes it worse as terrorist groups move out of range of US forces and the border regions.

If that’s the case, then the natural impulse for Gilani will be to back away from cooperation with the US, if for no other reason than to build more political support at home.  This comes at a critical time, when the US has to make a decision on troop drawdowns this summer.  If Pakistan weakens again on fighting al-Qaeda and the Taliban, that will make it more difficult for Obama to remove any significant number of troops, which might precipitate its own crisis of confidence here in the US among Obama’s base.

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