Oil Revolution: Iran's response to the West

 

The riots spread to the oil-rich Arab countries. During the clashes with police in Bahrain on 14-15 February, killing at least two protesters. What is the cause of such instability Bahrain? It would seem, is one of the richest "oil cats" Persian Gulf, in principle, is not threatened.

 

However, despite the gloss, not so well in this country. Most of its population are Shiites, including moved here to earn money from Iran. Many are immigrants from other countries. As a result - 15 percent of the employable population is unemployed.

Note that the current outbreak of violence was for the authorities by surprise. Thus, the foreign minister of Bahrain Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa said that the reason for the violence there, as rallies and any other protest the laws of the kingdom is not precluded.

However, the unrest caused by the fact that the majority of the population dissatisfied with the fact that power is in the hands of the Sunni minority, which is the total weight is less than 20 percent. As a result, the bulk of wealth from oil settles in the pockets of Sunnis, while all the others, especially the Shiites, whose share of total population approaching 70 percent, goes to the least.

Now the authorities are used to pacify the protesters, not only a whip, which had shown its weak performance on the example of Egypt, and carrots. Authorities said the kingdom that will be given to each family to 2700 dollars, will lower food prices and increase social benefits.

That's only if it satisfied the Shiites, who formed the backbone of malcontents? Doubtful. Not by chance the King of Bahrain Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa was accused of organizing riots, Iranian intelligence services, who allegedly orchestrated statement of opposition.

Recall that Iran actually does not recognize the Bahrain in the form in which it exists, claiming that the islands that make up this state, belonged to the ancient Persian Sassanid state since the IV century AD and that the Persians lost control of it only because the machinations of the Western colonizers, first Portuguese and then British.

In part, the Iranians can understand. After the independence of the territory they consider theirs, as claimed by the Persians themselves, gave the British. In doing so they bomb has been planted under the foundation of the stability of the region as a whole.

Since 1970, the Shah of Iran openly claim to Bahrain and other islands in the Persian Gulf. However, the ruling dynasty Pahlavi agreed with the British, "not to pursue" its claims on Bahrain if they meet the "other requirements".

Despite the nebula such wording as long as the shah of Iran rules, complications could be avoided. However, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah rescinded many of the agreements the shah to the West, including those relating to Bahrain.

It would be naive to believe that Iran, claiming control over these territories before, abandoned them now, when there discovered rich oil fields.

Not accidentally, the Ayatollah Khomeini never tired of repeating that, sooner or later "the corrupt pro-American regimes would fall." First and foremost, it must have belonged to Bahrain. Already in 1981, Shiite radicals from the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain tried to overthrow the king. Their actions led Hudzhatul Islam al-Hadi Mudarrisi. It was the authoritative among Shiites came from Bahrain, who lived in Iran.

And although this attempt was defeated, the Shiites were restless element in the kingdom. In 1994, they provoked a wave of unrest, complaining against the fact that in Bahrain, women were allowed to participate in competitive sports.

The situation in this country can not but worry the Americans. Bahrain not only gives the oil to the West, but also provides the U.S. military presence. Will the country's ruling dynasty to cope with a wave of unrest? After the fall of monarchy in Bahrain can trigger the appropriate "oil revolution" in all the monarchies of the Persian Gulf ...

Their thoughts in an interview Pravde.Ru "shared Arabist from the Institute of Strategic Studies and Analysis Sergey Demidenko:

"Of course, in recent decades, the Shia are very restless element. But to write off their performance solely on Iran is not worth it. Of course, the king of Bahrain to the claims of pursuing well-defined goal - shove a disease with blame on others. Basically, it's sort of a tradition for governors many Arab countries.

After all, if people are happy with their lives, something that no matter what foreign intelligence services, they will not destabilize the situation. In Bahrain, the same soil for it. However, one can with certainty say that the king, and this time be able to stifle discontent because his hands are enormous financial resources. Dissatisfied roll the dice with the royal table, and they will save time by His Majesty out of trouble. "

But will it continue so indefinitely? While the population of Bahrain has continued to increase significantly (although not as fast as in the same Egypt), per capita incomes are falling. In particular, due to the depletion of oil fields. And sooner or later, the Bahraini monarchy will have serious trouble.

Sergei Balmasov

 

 

 

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